I decided to start the year by revisiting my work on estimating reaction functions for the ECB (see the appendix to ECB Set to Cut Rates Amid Trade Turmoil and Will the ECB cut interest rates on ...

This paper evaluates the bias of the least-squares-with-dummy-variables (LSDV) method in fiscal reaction function estimations. A growing number of studies estimate fiscal policy reaction ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Macro strategy, with a fixed income and derivative bias. The Fed was dovish up to the June meeting. The Fed was dovish at the June ...

Bloomberg's Cameron Crise discusses the Fed projections implied by market pricing and economist dot-plot forecasts, based on the FOMC reaction function.

Bloomberg's Cameron Crise discusses how to think about possible shifts in the dot plot and a QT taper in light of the Fed's recent reaction function.