Testing and deploying a weather bot with Python + Azure Bot Service
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How i built a self-educated Polymarket weather trading agent which made 400% ROI in 2 days analysed 7K trades of top 3 weather bots → trained Hermes agent based on itinstalled on VPS + plugged in {ECMWF, METAR} forecast APIs & connected Opus 4.7run your agent in 5 steps: • rent a VPS on Hetzner - $5.99 • add weather API on {visualcrossing} - free• run Hermes CLI using one-liner code - free • install Telegram bot + Opus 4.7 • sent Hermes git repo with {weather trading logic}then used Hermes self-
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I built a 30-line Python weather bot for PolymarketMost guess April 26 temps - I don’t> NASA GISTEMP data since 1880> Filter April column> Post-1970 linear regression (y = m·x + b)> μ prediction residuals → σ> Normal CDF> exact probability for every bucket (1.15-1.19, 1.20-1.24 etc.)Then ENSO correction on top so La Nina doesn’t destroy the forecastMarket prices one bucket at 48%Model says 56%. Instant +EV.This is the baseline. Real edge starts here.Bookmark this thread and save it
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